| Attribute | Strong ★★★ | Moderate ★★ | Weak ★ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Body size (body ÷ range) | Large — 60%+ | Medium — 40–60% | Small — under 40% |
| Displacement follows | Large bearish, minimal lower wick | Clear, moderate size | Modest move, no clear FVG |
| Bearish FVG below OB | Clear (C1 low and C3 high visibly separated) | Marginal (narrow gap) | Absent (C1 low and C3 high overlap) |
| Premium zone depth | Deep premium Q4 (>75%) | Standard Q3 (50–75%) | Near CE (50–60%) |
| Post-Judas formation | Yes — after confirmed buy-side sweep | Sometimes | No — mid-session continuation only |
| Position size | 100% — standard plan | 75% + mandatory LTF CHoCH | 50% with LTF CHoCH only, or skip |
| Entry method | Limit sell at FVG CE or OB CE | Limit + mandatory LTF bearish CHoCH | Market only on LTF CHoCH — no limits |
Buy-side Judas completed (price swept above prior swing high BSL). Bearish MSS confirmed (CHoCH below prior swing low). Daily bias bearish (above midnight open CE). Weekly bias aligned. Identify the sell-side ERL: PDL (standard day) or PWL (primary weekly bearish delivery).
Run all five: (C1) bullish close, (C2) last bullish before displacement, (C3) displacement creates bearish CHoCH/BOS, (C4) premium zone above CE, (C5) unmitigated. If C1 or C4 fails: not a valid bearish OB — do not enter.
Body size, displacement size, FVG visibility, premium depth (Q4/Q3), post-Judas formation. Strong = 100%. Moderate = 75%. Weak = 50% with LTF CHoCH only.
Does the OB fall within the bearish OTE zone (0.62–0.79 retracement upward from the MSS low)? Does it sit inside a 1H or 4H bearish OB zone? Either adds a confluence layer.
OB + FVG overlap present: bearish FVG CE = (C1 low + C3 high) ÷ 2. Confirm it falls within the OB body. Set limit sell there. No overlap: OB CE = (open + close) ÷ 2. Weak OB: no limit — skip to LTF CHoCH only.
As price retraces into the zone on the 5M: watch for a small bearish displacement breaking the retracement’s last 5M swing low — confirming resting sell orders are absorbing the buying. Strong/moderate: preferred trigger. Weak: the ONLY valid trigger.
The structural ceiling of the bearish thesis. If price exceeds this level, the short-accumulation has been overwhelmed. Do not widen to an arbitrary level.
Primary: sell-side ERL (PDL or PWL). 50% partial at the first bearish IRL below. Trail on LTF bearish BOS events. Close remainder at the ERL sweep.
All 5 criteria pass. Enter short at bearish FVG CE at standard plan size. LTF bearish CHoCH preferred trigger. Stop above OB high wick. Target PDL.
C4 FAIL — below the CE = discount. Do NOT enter short. A bearish displacement from the discount is most likely the Judas sweep for a bullish day. Shorting here means shorting into institutional buying territory.
C1 FAIL — the candle is bearish (red close), not bullish. A bearish candle before a bearish move is part of the distribution, not the OB. Look one candle further back for the last bullish candle.
All criteria pass but quality indicators are moderate. Enter short at 75% size. LTF bearish CHoCH mandatory. Use OB CE (FVG too narrow for reliable CE). Stop above OB high wick. Target PDL at 75%.
| Dimension | Bearish OB | Bullish OB |
|---|---|---|
| OB candle direction | BULLISH candle (closes above open) | BEARISH candle (closes below open) |
| P/D position | PREMIUM zone — above CE | DISCOUNT zone — below CE |
| Stop placement | Above OB high wick | Below OB low wick |
| FVG direction | Downward — gap below OB | Upward — gap above OB |
| FVG CE formula | (C1 LOW + C3 HIGH) ÷ 2 | (C1 HIGH + C3 LOW) ÷ 2 |
| FVG overlap condition | C3 HIGH within OB body | C3 LOW within OB body |
| AMD context | Post buy-side Judas (BSL swept above) | Post sell-side Judas (SSL swept below) |
| Target | Sell-side ERL — PDL, PWL, EQL | Buy-side ERL — PDH, PWH, EQH |
| Institutional backing | Resting SELL limit orders | Resting BUY limit orders |
The OB is the candle BEFORE the displacement — the last bullish candle, not the first bearish one. Entering from the displacement itself means entering at the bottom of the Phase 3 launch instead of the premium accumulation zone.
OB CE = (open + close) ÷ 2, not the wick-to-wick midpoint. The body midpoint targets the densest sell-limit-order area. The wick midpoint produces a CE too high — near the upper probe, not the accumulation core.
The discount zone is institutional buying territory. A bearish displacement from discount is most commonly the Judas sweep for a bullish day. Shorting from a discount-zone “bearish OB” puts the trader against the AMD direction. Always verify: above CE = valid; below CE = disqualified.
When the buy-side Judas extends twice — a second bullish candle probes slightly higher before the bearish displacement — the LAST bullish candle is the OB, not the first. The second extension collects additional BSL; its sell-limit orders are the freshest. Always: last bullish candle of the sweep sequence, however many extensions occurred.
Lio has traded ICT and Smart Money Concepts on forex majors and US indices since 2021 and built LiquiditySweeps.com to teach the framework the way it should be learned: in sequence, on real charts, with free live tools instead of paid indicators. Every article on this site follows the same rule — nothing gets published that wouldn’t survive a trade review.
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