Regularly invalidates active AMD setups. ICT action: SKIP entry / EXIT open position / REDUCE to 25–50%. NFP, CPI, FOMC, ECB, BOE, GDP advance, PPI.
Affects AMD if strongly surprising vs consensus. ICT action: HOLD with awareness, be ready to exit if print opposes AMD. ISM, ADP, retail sales, JOLTS.
Minimal directional impact on major pairs. ICT action: HOLD — no position adjustment required. Weekly claims (except in NFP week → orange).
1st Friday monthly, 08:30 EST. EUR/USD: 50–120 pips. NQ: 75–250+ pts. Highest-impact US release. Do NOT hold full position into NFP Friday. Reduce to 25% runner before Thursday close. Post-NFP AMD setup is the primary opportunity.
Monthly, 08:30 EST. EUR/USD: 30–80 pips. NQ: 50–150 pts. Primary inflation measure. Above-consensus = USD bullish, EUR/USD bearish. Reduce to 50% before release.
8x yearly, 14:00 EST + press conference 14:30. EUR/USD: 40–100 pips. NQ: 60–200 pts. EXIT ALL positions before 13:30 EST. No exception. Falls outside standard KZs but any morning position remains at risk.
ECB quarterly ~03:15 EST (within London KZ — most dangerous for Model 1). No new EUR/USD entries on ECB day. BOE quarterly ~07:00 EST (within NY AM KZ). No GBP/USD Model 2 on BOE day.
GDP quarterly 08:30 EST, EUR/USD: 20–50 pips. PPI monthly 08:30 EST, EUR/USD: 15–40 pips. PPI is a leading CPI indicator. Reduce to 50% before both.
Red within 2 hrs of KZ. NFP Friday. FOMC day. Mark as “calendar skip” in journal. Resume next session. Review whether the news produced a post-news AMD setup.
Red within 2 hrs of open position’s hold period. Close 50–75% at market, minimum 15–30 min before release. Keep structural stop on remainder. Re-add from post-news BPR/FVG if AMD confirmed.
Orange event, position profitable, past first IRL partial, stop at BE or better. Keep one hand on close button. If release strongly contradicts AMD: exit immediately at the reversal.
FOMC (always). Any red event within active hold period with position at BE or small profit. FOMC: exit before 13:30 EST. Record as “pre-news exit” in journal.
Investing.com or ForexFactory. Current week. High and medium impact only. Note all red events: exact EST time, affected instrument (USD/EUR/GBP/equities), which session it falls within.
Monday = Phase 1 accumulation. Tue–Wed = Phase 2 Judas (highest impact). Thu–Fri = Phase 3 distribution. A red event in Phase 3 during an active swing position requires specific pre-news planning.
Write specific notes: “CPI Wed 08:30 — skip Model 2 or reduce London position to 50% before 08:15.” “FOMC Wed 14:00 — EXIT ALL before 13:30.” Referenced each morning.
Alert 30 min before each red event. Name: “CPI in 30 min — reduce/exit now.” The 30-min window provides exactly enough time to execute a position reduction before release volatility.
Any red/orange events today? Release times confirmed? Any intra-week additions (emergency Fed, surprise decisions)? Prevents being surprised by a release that was on the calendar but not reviewed.
Bullish or bearish bias was established before the release. Without a pre-established AMD direction, the post-news move is directionally ambiguous — do not enter.
Sharp spike in one direction then reversal within 3–5 min. A grinding continuation (5–10 min sustained move) is a genuine breakout, not a Judas. Do not enter.
Large-body 5M candle breaks the prior swing formed during the spike. Creates the BPR or FVG entry zone. If MSS has not formed within 10 min of reversal: skip this release.
C1–C2–C3 FVG or BPR (two overlapping FVGs). FVG CE or BPR CE = limit entry price. Alternative: 1M CHoCH market entry if neither FVG nor BPR is present.
The MSS direction matches the pre-release bias. The release confirmed the AMD, not contradicted it. If opposing: EXIT any position immediately. Do not trade against the news-confirmed direction.
HOLD or EXTEND. Phase 3 distribution accelerates. Consider extending target from PDH to PWH if on a primary delivery day with strong AMD alignment.
EXIT IMMEDIATELY at the first available price after the initial spike. Do not wait for recovery. A strongly opposing red print can cause a daily CHoCH. The AMD has changed.
Lio has traded ICT and Smart Money Concepts on forex majors and US indices since 2021 and built LiquiditySweeps.com to teach the framework the way it should be learned.
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