Monthly structure bullish (HH/HL) AND weekly structure bullish (HH/HL, price below weekly CE). Both required. Weekly bias without monthly = lower probability.
Price has swept below the Monday range low or PWL (weekly SSL). A bullish reversal candle formed after the sweep. The weekly MSS is confirmed.
A qualifying entry zone exists with its CE below the weekly CE. Fresh, unmitigated, formed after the weekly Judas.
Check for NFP, CPI, FOMC, ECB, BOE within 48 hours. If present: defer or reduce to 50% maximum.
(PWH − entry) / (entry − stop) ≥ 3:1. Higher threshold than session (1.5:1) because swing positions bear overnight gap and news risk.
Has price closed below the prior daily swing low? If yes: daily bullish structure broken. Close the position.
Has price closed below the daily OB low? If yes: structural stop violated on daily close. Close.
High-impact release tomorrow? Reduce position size and tighten provisional stop to most recent 4H swing low.
Move stop to below the most recent daily higher low minus 2–3 pips. Trails the stop upward at the daily structural level.
First time PDH is reached: take 50% partial, move stop to break-even on the remaining position.
Monday is Phase 1 accumulation. The weekly direction is unconfirmed. Monday swing entries have the highest single-day failure rate because the Judas has not occurred.
A 5M FVG (6–10 pips) can be fully traversed by a single overnight gap. Daily OBs (20–50 pips) and 4H FVGs (15–40 pips) absorb overnight noise. Match entry zone width to hold period.
Weekend gaps and NFP moves routinely gap through daily OB stops. Reduce to 25% runner or close before Friday 16:00 EST. Defer swing entry within 48 hours of NFP/CPI/FOMC.
The 5-step morning check at 01:30 EST takes 5–8 minutes and is the most important swing discipline. Skipping it = leaving the position unmonitored through structural changes.
Lio has traded ICT and Smart Money Concepts on forex majors and US indices since 2021 and built LiquiditySweeps.com to teach the framework the way it should be learned: in sequence, on real charts, with free live tools instead of paid indicators.
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