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ICT Weekly Bias — Complete Guide

ICT weekly bias explained — the dominant institutional direction for the trading week. The 5-step Sunday analysis, the weekly opening price, the weekly AMD cycle (Monday Judas), the 5-day delivery model, and weekly-daily bias hierarchy.

Most ICT traders learn the daily bias framework and stop there. But each day’s AMD narrative is one component of a five-day weekly institutional delivery cycle with its own accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases. The trader who only knows the daily analysis is seeing individual trees. The weekly bias shows the forest.

Key takeaways

Weekly bias = the dominant institutional direction for the trading week. Determined by weekly structure (HH/HL or LH/LL), monthly context, PWH/PWL, weekly opening price, and weekly PD arrays.
Weekly governs daily: aligned daily AMD (same direction as weekly) = 100% size. Counter-trend daily = 50–75% max. Ambiguous weekly = 50% all week.
Monday = potential weekly Judas (sweeps PWL in a bullish week). Tuesday–Wednesday = PRIMARY distribution days (★ highest probability). Friday = position squaring.
The weekly opening price (WOP) is the week’s dynamic premium/discount anchor. Below WOP = weekly discount (buy zone in bullish week).
The 35-minute Sunday routine is the most consistently high-return time investment in ICT methodology.

What is ICT weekly bias?

Definition

ICT weekly bias is the dominant institutional directional intention for the trading week, determined from weekly timeframe structure, the position of current price relative to the weekly opening price, the prior week’s range and liquidity pools, and any unmitigated weekly PD arrays. It governs daily AMD direction: a bullish weekly bias means the majority of daily AMD cycles should deliver upward, and bearish daily AMD days within it are typically Judas sweeps in service of the broader bullish delivery.

The 5-step Sunday analysis (20–35 minutes)

1. Weekly market structure — HH/HL or LH/LL?

Open the weekly chart. Mark the most recent weekly swing highs and lows. HH/HL = bullish. LH/LL = bearish. The most recent weekly swing high = BSL above. Swing low = SSL below.

2. Monthly context — with-trend or counter-trend?

Open the monthly chart briefly. Bullish weekly within bullish monthly = with-trend (highest confidence). Bullish weekly within bearish monthly = counter-trend (requires stronger weekly confirmation).

3. Prior week’s range — PWH and PWL

Mark the exact PWH and PWL with horizontal lines. Bullish week: PWL = Monday Judas target. PWH = primary weekly target. Bearish: reverse.

4. Weekly opening price (WOP)

Mark the exact price at the weekly candle open (Sunday 17:00 EST forex, Monday 09:30 equities). Above WOP = weekly premium. Below = weekly discount. The week’s intra-week P/D anchor.

5. Weekly PD arrays

Identify any unmitigated weekly OBs or FVGs from the past 4–8 weeks. These carry the highest institutional weight. Note weekly entry zone + weekly target.

The weekly opening price — the week’s premium/discount anchor

The WOP is the institutional anchor from which the week’s premium and discount zones are defined. In a bullish week: days opening below the WOP are starting in the weekly discount — higher probability for bullish Judas sweeps and bullish distribution. Days opening above the WOP are in the weekly premium — take partial profits earlier. Monday’s relationship to the WOP is particularly instructive: Monday below WOP in a bullish week = ideal setup for the Monday bullish Judas sweep below PWL, then reversal back toward and above the WOP.

The weekly AMD cycle — Monday as the weekly Judas

BULLISH WEEKLY AMDDAILY

The weekly AMD as daily candles. Monday: Judas wick sweeps below PWL (weekly SSL collected). Tuesday: large bullish distribution candle (★ highest probability day). Wednesday: continuation toward PWH (★). Thursday: smaller continuation. Friday: partial pullback as positions square before the weekend.

The 5-day weekly delivery model

BEARISH WEEKLY AMDDAILY

The bearish mirror. Monday: Judas wick sweeps above PWH (weekly BSL collected). Tuesday: large bearish distribution (★). Wednesday: continuation toward PWL (★). Thursday: smaller continuation. Friday: partial bounce. Every step inverts from the bullish model.

Weekly bias vs daily bias — hierarchy and conflict resolution

Aligned (weekly + daily same direction)

100% standard size

Full conviction entry. Both timeframes point the same way. This is where the highest-probability daily AMD trades come from. Prioritise Tue–Wed for maximum alignment.

Counter-trend (daily opposes weekly)

50–75% maximum

Conservative target, tight stop. A bearish daily AMD in a bullish week is likely a pullback, not a reversal. Use it to identify where the next aligned daily entry will come from — not as a primary trade.

Ambiguous weekly bias

50% all week

No clear weekly structure. Require extra confluence for any entry. Extended RR threshold. Some weeks are not for trading — this recognition is an edge.

Common mistakes

Skipping the Sunday analysis

The 35-minute Sunday routine is the most consistently high-return time investment in ICT. Without it, every daily AMD trade that week is taken without the governing filter.

Trading full size against the weekly bias

A bearish daily setup in a strongly bullish week = counter-trend. 50–75% max. Never full size against a clearly established weekly direction.

Not marking the WOP on every chart

The weekly opening price is the week’s P/D anchor. Without it, you cannot distinguish weekly premium from discount during the trading sessions.

Forcing a bias on ambiguous weeks

Some weeks present genuinely ambiguous structure. Reducing to 50% and requiring extra confluence is the disciplined response. Forcing a direction = guessing.

Prioritising Monday for entries over Tuesday–Wednesday

Monday is the potential weekly Judas — the highest false-start probability. Tue–Wed is where the confirmed distribution occurs. Prioritise screen time Tue–Wed.

FAQ — ICT weekly bias

What is weekly bias? +

The dominant institutional direction for the week. Determined Sunday from weekly structure, monthly context, PWH/PWL, WOP, and weekly PD arrays. Governs all daily AMD trades.

Best trading days? +

Tuesday and Wednesday — primary weekly distribution. Highest probability of daily AMD aligning with weekly bias. Monday = potential Judas. Friday = position squaring.

Weekly vs daily conflict? +

Weekly governs. Aligned = 100%. Counter-trend daily = 50–75% max. Ambiguous weekly = 50% all week. Never full-size against the weekly bias.

Weekly opening price? +

Price at weekly candle open (Sun 17:00 EST forex, Mon 09:30 equities). Above = weekly premium. Below = weekly discount. The week’s dynamic P/D anchor.

Conclusion — the weekly bias is the week’s master filter

The 35-minute Sunday routine — monthly context, weekly structure, WOP, PWH/PWL, weekly PD arrays, economic calendar — is the foundation on which every daily AMD trade of the following five sessions rests. Every dollar risked with the weekly bias aligned is risked at a higher probability than every dollar risked against it. Three habits to implement immediately: complete the weekly analysis every Sunday before the market opens, mark the WOP and PWH/PWL on every chart, and never take full-size positions in the counter-trend daily direction within a clearly established opposing weekly bias.

The companion guide is the daily bias guide — the session-level analysis that weekly bias governs. Together they form the complete top-down analysis pair. The swing trading guide covers multi-day positions aligned with the weekly AMD. The PWH/PWL guide covers the primary weekly targets. Or join the mentorship for structured guidance through weekly bias assessments and daily AMD alignment.

Lio

Founder & ICT trading educator, LiquiditySweeps.com

Lio has traded ICT and Smart Money Concepts on forex majors and US indices since 2021 and built LiquiditySweeps.com to teach the framework the way it should be learned: in sequence, on real charts, with free live tools instead of paid indicators.

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Quick check

Which days of the week are the PRIMARY weekly distribution days — the highest-probability AMD trading days?

✓ Correct. Tuesday and Wednesday are the PRIMARY weekly distribution days — the highest-probability AMD trading days of the week. The weekly Judas (Monday) is confirmed complete, and institutional delivery is at full momentum. Prioritise screen time Tue–Wed. The probability of daily AMD aligning with weekly bias is highest on these days.